Publications and Working Papers
by Topic Area

LABOR ECONOMICS

"Exploring the Usefulness of a Non-Random Holdout Sample for Model Validation: Welfare Effects on Female Behavior," with Ken Wolpin, Working paper.

"Intertemporal Labor Supply and Human Capital Accumulation," with Susumu Imai, International Economic Review, 2004, 45:2 (May), 601-641.

"Financial Aid, Borrowing Constraints and College Attendance: Evidence from Structural Estimates," American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), 2002, 92:2, 293-297.

"Estimating Welfare Effects Consistent with Forward Looking Behavior, Part I: Lessons from a Simulation Exercise," with Ken Wolpin, Journal of Human Resources, 2002, 37:3, 570-599.

"Estimating Welfare Effects Consistent with Forward Looking Behavior, Part II: Empirical Results," with Ken Wolpin, Journal of Human Resources, 2002, 37:3, 600-622.

"The Effect of Parental Transfers and Borrowing Constraints on Educational Attainment," with Ken Wolpin, International Economic Review, 2001, 42:4, 1051-1103.

"Eliminating Race Differences in School Attainment and Labor Market Success," with Ken Wolpin, Journal of Labor Economics, 2000, 18:4, 614-652.

"An Empirical Analysis of Earnings Dynamics among Men in the PSID: 1968-1989," with John Geweke, Journal of Econometrics, 2000, 96: 293-356.

"A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply," with Robert Moffitt, International Economic Review, 1998, 39:3, 553-589.

"The Career Decisions of Young Men," with Ken Wolpin, Journal of Political Economy, 1997, 105:3, 473-522.

"Introduction to the JBES Special Issue on Structural Estimation in Applied Microeconomics," with Ken Wolpin, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1997, 15:2, 111-114.

"A New Idea for Welfare Reform," Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 1995, 19:2, 2-28.

"Skill Levels and the Cyclical Variability of Employment, Hours and Wages," with Eswar Prasad, IMF Staff Papers, 1993, 40:4.

"Individual Heterogeneity and Interindustry Wage Differentials," Journal of Human Resources, 1993, 28:1, 134-61.

"The Estimation of Food Stamp Self Selection Models using the Method of Simulation," Mathematica Policy Research report 7890-009 prepared for the Food and Nutrition Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture under contract 53-3198-9-31 (March 1992, with Robert Moffitt).

"Structural vs. Atheoretic Approaches to Econometrics," Keynote Address at the Duke Conference on Structural Models in Labor, Aging and Health, September 17-19, 2005.

"Bayesian Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Conditional Distribution of Earnings of Men in the United States, 1967-1996," with John Geweke, Bayesian Statistics and its Applications, S.K. Upadhyay, U. Singh and D.K. Dey (eds.), Anamaya: New Delhi.

"Generalized Indirect Inference for Discrete Choice Models," with Tony Smith, Working paper.

"SML Estimation based on First Order Conditions," Working paper.

"A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimation Algorithm for Dynamic Panel Data Models with Unobserved Endogenous State Variables," with Robert Sauer.

"Behavior in a Dynamic Decision Problem: An Analysis of Experimental Evidence Using a Bayesian Type Classification Algorithm," with Dan Houser and Kevin McCabe, Econometrica, 2004, 72:3, 781-822.

"Computationally Intensive Methods for Integration in Econometrics," with John Geweke, Handbook of Econometrics: Vol. 5, J.J. Heckman and E.E. Leamer (eds.), 2001, Elsevier Science B.V., 3463-3568.

"Bayesian Inference for Dynamic Discrete Choice Models without the Need for Dynamic Programming," with John Geweke, in Simulation Based Inference and Econometrics: Methods and Applications, Mariano, Schuermann and Weeks (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 2002, 100-131. (Also available as Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis WP # 564, January 1996).

"Simulation Based Inference for Dynamic Multinomial Choice Models," with John Geweke and Dan Houser, in Companion in Theoretical Econometrics, Baltagi (ed.), Basil Blackwell, 2000, 466-493.

"Mixture of Normals Probit Models," with John Geweke, in Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variable Models, Hsiao, Lahiri, Lee and Pesaran (eds.), Cambridge University Press, 1999, 49-78.

"Statistical Inference in the Multinomial Multiperiod Probit Model," with John Geweke and David Runkle, 1997, Journal of Econometrics, 80, 125-165.

"Recursively Simulating Multinomial Multiperiod Probit Probabilities," with John Geweke and David Runkle, Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Business and Economic Statistics Section, 1994, 1-6.

"The Solution and Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models by Simulation: Monte Carlo Evidence," with Ken Wolpin, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, 76:4, 648-72.

"Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model," with John Geweke and David Runkle, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, 76:4, 609-32.

"A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, 1994, 62:1, 95-116.

"Simulation Estimation for Panel Data Models with Limited Dependent Variables," in The Handbook of Statistics, G.S.Maddala, C.R. Rao and H.D. Vinod editors, North Holland publisher.

"A Note on Identification in the Multinomial Probit Model," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1992, 10:2, 193-200.

"On the Estimation of Panel Data Models with Serial Correlation when Instruments are Predetermined but not Strictly Exogenous, with David Runkle, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1992, 10:1, 1-9. [Also in The Econometrics of Panel Data, G.S. Maddala editor, Edward Elgar publisher.]

"Are Financial Analysts' Forecasts of Corporate Profits Rational?," with David Runkle, Journal of Political Economy, 1998, 106:4, 768-805.

"The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Sectoral Analysis," with Eswar Prasad, Review of Economics and Statistics, 1996, 78:3, 389-401.

"Nominal Contracting Theories of Unemployment: Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, 1993, 83:4, 932-52.

"Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," with David Runkle, American Economic Review, 1990, 80:4, 714-735.

"Are Economic Forecasts Rational?," with David Runkle, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 1989, 13:2, 26-33.

"Real Wages over the Business Cycle: Estimating the Impact of Heterogeneity with Micro Data," with Robert Moffitt and David Runkle, Journal of Political Economy, 96, 1232-1266.

"Learning About Computers: An Analysis of Information Search and Technology Choice," with Tulin Erdem and Judi Strebel, Quantitative Marketing and Economics, forthcoming.

"The Impact of Advertising on Price Sensitivity in Experience Goods Markets," with Tulin Erdem and Baohong Sun, Working paper.

"A Dynamic Model of Brand Choice when Price and Advertising Signal Product Quality," with Tulin Erdem and Baohong Sun, Working paper.

"Brand and Quantity Choice Dynamics under Price Uncertainty," with Tulin Erdem and Susumu Imai," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, 2003, 1:1, 5-64.

"Missing Price and Coupon Availability Data in Scanner Panels: Correcting for the Self-Selection Bias in Choice Model Parameters," with Tulin Erdem and Baohong Sun, Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 89: 177-196.

"Modeling Heterogeneity and State Dependence in Consumer Choice Behavior," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1997, 15:3, 310-327.

"Current Issues in Discrete Choice Modeling," Marketing Letters, 1997, 8:3, 307-22.

"Decision Making under Uncertainty: Capturing Dynamic Brand Choice Processes in Turbulent Consumer Goods Markets," with Tulin Erdem, Marketing Science, 15:1, 1-20.

"A Factor-Analytic Probit Model for Representing the Market Structure in Panel Data," with Terry Elrod, Journal of Marketing Research, 32, 1-16.

"Advances in Logistics and the Growth of Intra-Firm Trade:The Case of Canadian Affiliates of U.S. Multinationals, 1984-1995," with Susan Feinberg, Working paper. Appendices to accompany paper

"Economic Challenges in Estimating FDI Spillover Effects on Productivity," in Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development, Moran, Graham and Blomstrom (eds.), Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 2005, 179-191.

"Intra-firm Trade of US MNCs: Findings and Implications for Models and Policies Towards Trade and Investment," with Susan Feinberg, in Does Foreign Direct Investment Promote Development, Moran, Graham and Blomstrom (eds.), Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 2005, 245-271.

"Accounting for the Growth of MNC-based Trade Using a Structural Model of U.S. MNCs," with Susan Feinberg, Working paper.

"Tariff Effects on MNC Decisions to Engage in Intra-Firm and Arms-Length Trade," with Susan Feinberg, Working paper.

"The Influence of Wages and Industrial Relations Environments on the Production Location Decisions of US Multinational Corporations," with Mario F. Bognanno and Donghoon Yang, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, (January 2005), 58:2, 171-200.

"US-Canada Trade Liberalization and MNC Production Location," with Susan Feinberg, Review of Economics and Statistics, 2001, 83:1, 118-132.

"Trade Liberalization and Delocalization: New Evidence from Firm Level Panel Data," with Susan Feinberg and Mario Bognanno, Canadian Journal of Economics, 1998, 31:4, 749-777.

"Changes in the Structure of Earnings During the Polish Transition," with Eswar Prasad, Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming.

"Social Transfers and Inequality During the Economic Transition in Poland," with Eswar Prasad, in Growth and Inequality: Issues and Policy Implications, Eicher and Turnovsky (eds.), 2003, MIT Press.

"Inequality, Transfers and Growth: New Evidence from the Economic Transition in Poland," with Eswar Prasad, Review of Economics and Statistics, 2002, 84:2, 324-341.

"Consumption and Income Inequality During the Transition to a Market Economy: Poland, 1985-1992," with Eswar Prasad, in IMF Staff Papers, Annual Research Conference Special Issue, 2001, 121-154.

"A Political Economy Model of Congressional Careers," with Antonio Merlo and Daniel Diermeier, American Economic Review, 2005, 95:1 (March), 347-373.

"Comment on 'Simulation and Estimation of Hedonic Models' by Heckman, Matzkin and Nesheim," in Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling, H. Scarf and T.N. Srinivasan (eds.), 2004, Cambridge University Press.

"A Model of Health Plan Choice: Inferring Preferences and Perceptions from a Combination of Revealed Preference and Attitudinal Data," with Katherine Harris, Journal of Econometrics, 1999, 89: 131-157.

"Identifying Individual Differences: An Algorithm with Application to Phineas Gage," with Antoine Bechara, Dan Houser, Kevin McCabe, and Vernon Smith, Games and Economic Behavior, forthcoming.