Short Bio

James Morley is a Professor of Economics at the University of New South Wales. He received his PhD from the University of Washington in 1999. Prior to arriving in Australia, he was a faculty member at Washington University in St. Louis (1999-2010) and a research fellow at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (2004-2010). He has also held visiting positions at the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and has worked regularly with the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers. He is a research associate of the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis and holds a two-year term as the President of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. His research focuses on time-series applications in macroeconomics, finance, and international finance. He has written on topics such as trend/cycle decomposition for macroeconomic data, the long-run consequences of recessions, stock market volatility and return predictability, and the adjustment of exchange rates to purchasing power parity. His articles have appeared in top journals, including the Journal of Econometrics, the Journal of International Economics, the Journal of Monetary Economics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. (click here for a .txt file of bio)

Selected Publications

“The Asymmetric Business Cycle” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 94 (February 2012), 208-221 (with Jeremy Piger)

“The Emperor Has No Clothes,” Macroeconomic Advisers’ Macro Focus (June 2010, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 1-14)

“Trend/Cycle Decomposition of Regime-Switching Processes,” Journal of Econometrics, vol. 146 (October 2008), 220-226 (with Jeremy Piger)

“The Slow Adjustment of Aggregate Consumption to Permanent Income,” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, vol. 39 (March-April 2007), 615-638

“In Search of the Natural Rate of Unemployment,” Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 54 (March 2007), 550-564 (with Thomas King)

“Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 20 (“Recent Developments in Business Cycle Analysis” 2005), 291-309 (with Chang-Jin Kim and Jeremy Piger)

“The Structural Break in the Equity Premium,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 23 (April 2005), 181-191 (with Chang-Jin Kim and Charles R. Nelson)

“Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85 (May 2003), 235-243 (with Charles R. Nelson and Eric Zivot)

Selected Professional Activities

President of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2011-2013)

Associate Editor for Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (2011-2014) and Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2011-)

Member of the Shadow RBA Board (2011-)

Local Organizer for 14th Annual Symposium for the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, held at Washington University, March 2006

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